The Cancellation Bear is Very Hungry

 I'm no expert ratings analyst, but I'll give it a shot:

This season has not been good for new shows, both in terms of quality and, you know, survivng. Pretty much every new show that's not on CBS is failing. If anyone is unfamiliar with the concept of the "Cancellation Bear", coined by the website TV By the Numbers, it is a mythical bear who eats the lowest rated shows on each network. Take Chuck, for example. It is currently holding steady around a 1.9 demo, which is terrible...except for the fact that it's on NBC, who's current average demo is a 2.1. Regardless, a show with a demo that low in it's fourth season you would think is doomed to be eaten by the cancellation bear. But last week, Chase dropped to a 1.7, thus putting it between Chuck and the cancellation bear. The basic idea is that now the cancellation bear will eat Chase before/instead of Chuck. And this season, it appears the cnacellation bear is hungry for some new blood.

Let's start on CBS. CBS primarily relies on a ridicoulous amount of procedurals and very broad (and mostly poor) sitcoms. This, of course, means it's the number one network. The top five shows (in terms of viewers) are all on CBS: Hawaii Five-O, Mike and Molly, Feces My Dad Says, The Defenders, and Blue Bloods. And, because the network is in such good shape, the cancellation bear has its sights set on two of those shows. Quality-wise, I can tell you Hawaii Five-O is fine, Mike and Molly has potential that, judging from the past of the show's creator, will never be realized and $#*! My Dad Says is, well, $#*!. Looking at the ratings for CBS kind of make me sad. Most shows are completely unoriginal, contain average to horrible writing and acting, and are mostly mega-hits.

Next up, ABC. All of the ratings for ABC's returning shows seem to be in good shape. The audience for Castle is steadily increasing while the audience for most other returning shows is holding steady. Their Wednesday night comedy block is a powerhouse, especially the latter half. However, like most of the other networks, the new shows are where we run into problems. My Generation has already been canceled while The Whole Truth is looking like it will be the next one to go. Detroit 1-8-7 is falling week-to-week. Better with You is holding right in the middle of the road. The only hope for at least a minor hit is No Ordinary Family, which has decreased week-to-week from a good start and, if it's bottomed out at where it was last week, is in perfectly good shape. While ABC isn't necessarily in a dire state, a lack of hit shows is certainly noticable. They lost Lost (see what I did there?) and ratings for once-giant shows have fallen quite a bit.

The CW is the CW. They had two new shows, both of which were aimed squarely at teenage girls, so they're fine. The only really notable thing here is that the CW is currently the only network with successful scripted shows on friday nights.

FOX is in a very good, although deteriorating, state. They still have their hit shows in House, American Idol, Glee, and their animation domination block. Unfortunately, House is hitting series lows (which are still very high. Plus, hitting series lows in a show's seventh season is perfectly normal), American Idol lost two iconic judges and people are getting weary of their stalling tactics, and the Animation Domination block is slowly falling, possibly due to the fact that people finally realized that they were watching an hour and a half of Seth Macfarlane shows and that The Simpsons has been on for 22 years (I suppose this is as good a time as any to insert this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DX1iplQQJTo). Fox has to be happy that they finally made a decent sitcom that people will actually watch (hint: greenlight sitcoms that are less horrendous) in Raising Hope. However, Running Wilde, The Good Guys, and Fringe, and Lie to Me, at this point, look to be goners.

And then we have NBC. Poor, poor NBC. NBC is been in a rather dire state in the past few seasons and this season, it looked like they were finally ready to turn that around. They had a well advertised, interesting enough looking show in The Event, they had a new Law and Order, and they even had a J.J Abrams show. But now, it appears NBC is in an even worse shape. The Event has freefalled in ratings since its premiere, Law and Order: LA has failed to accomplish much except for getting people to mock the abbreviation LOLA, and, turns out, people just weren't that interested in a J.J Abrams procedural. Meanwhile, Law and Order: SVU has plummeted as if it was a new show and Chase started low and has only fallen since (that's how bad NBC is doing, they can't even make a procedural a hit). 30 Rock, it turns out, can do fine with The Office as its lead-in, pulling modest numbers that are considered a "hit" on NBC. Community is hovering around a 2.0, which, sadly (for the network, not the show) is NBC's current average demo. And then we have Chuck.

Chuck has been riding NBC's downward curve for four seasons now. If it was on any other network, it probably would have gotten the boot somewhere around season 2. In season four, the show is currently hanging steady at a 1.9. Which, at the start of the season, was almost a lock for cancellation, but now, after watching everything else slide downwards, is almost a lock for an order of a back nine or six episodes. Things don't look too bright for NBC's future either. The Office is NBC's number one show but with Steve Carell leaving at the end of the season, he's bound to take some viewers with him. None of NBC's midseason shows seem to have very much potential which is unfortunate, as they are really going to need all of them. Sadly, NBC's only successful new show is Outsourced, which is, of course, terrible. NBC is in such a terrible state. It's actually very interesting to watch and, without, several of what are currently my favorite shows would not have survived very long.